Predicting extreme weather and sea level for nuclear power plant safety – PREDICT

The safety management over the life cycle of a nuclear power plant requires probability estimates of exceptional weather and sea level conditions in the current and future climate. The main objective of PREDICT is to develop and maintain research expertise and methods needed for assessing probabilities of occurrence of safety-relevant single and compound extreme weather and marine events, both in the range of 0–15 days ahead and in decadal time scales of recent past and future climatic changes. The expected results include improved probability estimates for intense coastal snowfall, coastal flooding risks and compounding extreme events, such as heavy rain and high sea level.

Project information

Project duration: 1.2.2019–31.1.2023

Funding: The Finnish State Nuclear Waste Management Fund through SAFIR2022, the Finnish Nuclear Power Plant Safety Research Programme 2019–2022 (http://safir2022.vtt.fi/)

Project structure: Extreme weather in changing climate (WP1); Extreme sea level (WP2); Improving forecasts of extreme weather and sea level events (WP3).

Project description (pdf)

Waves crushing onto rocks

Figure: Simultaneously occurring two or more external events, such as high wind speed and high sea level, may cause more severe consequences than single incidents alone.

Abstracts, posters and presentations

Leijala, U., Johansson, M. M., Särkkä, J. & Pellikka, H. 2019. GC11M-1181: Studying the Extrapolation Techniques and Uncertainty Related to the Coastal Flood Risk Estimates in Finland. AGU Fall Meeting 2019, San Francisco (9.–13.12.2019)

Overview of PREDICT in the Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society (9.–13.9.2019):

Preceding project EXWE

Links to EXWE presentations and publications (pdf)

Further information

Kirsti Jylhä (Project manager, leader of WP1), FMI, Weather and Climate Change Impact Research, tel. +358 295 394 125

Ulpu Leijala (leader of WP2), FMI, Marine Research, tel. +358 295 396 568

Carl Fortelius (leader of WP3), FMI, Meteorological Research, tel. +358 295 394 130

email: forename.surname@fmi.fi