Predicting extreme weather and sea level for nuclear power plant safety – PREDICT

The safety management over the life cycle of a nuclear power plant requires probability estimates of exceptional weather and sea level conditions in the current and future climate. The main objective of PREDICT is to develop and maintain research expertise and methods needed for assessing probabilities of occurrence of safety-relevant single and compound extreme weather and marine events, both in the range of 0–15 days ahead and in decadal time scales of recent past and future climatic changes. The expected results include improved probability estimates for intense coastal snowfall, coastal flooding risks and compounding extreme events, such as heavy rain and high sea level.

Project information

Project duration: 1.2.2019–31.1.2023

Funding: The Finnish State Nuclear Waste Management Fund through SAFIR2022, the Finnish Nuclear Power Plant Safety Research Programme 2019–2022 (http://safir2022.vtt.fi/)

Project structure: Extreme weather in changing climate (WP1); Extreme sea level (WP2); Improving forecasts of extreme weather and sea level events (WP3).

Project description (PDF)

Waves crushing onto rocks

Figure: Simultaneously occurring two or more external events, such as high wind speed and high sea level, may cause more severe consequences than single incidents alone. Image: Shutterstock.

Publications

2023

Jylhä, K., Leijala, U., Johansson, M. M., Laine, M., Laurila, T. K., Luomaranta, A., Olsson, T., Virman, M., Rantanen, M., Rauhala, J., Räty, O. & Särkkä, J., 2023: Predicting extreme weather and sea level for nuclear power plant safety (PREDICT). In: Hämäläinen, .J. & Suolanen, V. (eds): SAFIR2022 – The Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety 2019–2022. Final Report. VTT Technology 414. Pages 100–116.

2022

Johansson, M. M., Björkqvist, J.-V., Särkkä, J., Leijala, U. & Kahma, K. K., 2022: Correlation of wind waves and sea level variations on the coast of the seasonally ice-covered Gulf of Finland, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 813–829.

Olsson, T., Luomaranta, A., Nyman, H., & Jylhä, K. 2022. Climatology of sea-effect snow in Finland. International Journal of Climatology, 43, 650–667.

Rutgersson, A., Kjellström, E., Haapala, J., Stendel, M., Danilovich, I., Drews, M., Jylhä, K., Kujala, P., Larsén, X. G., Halsnæs, K., Lehtonen, I., Luomaranta, A., Nilsson, E., Olsson, T., Särkkä, J., Tuomi, L. & Wasmund, N. 2022: Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301. Räty, O., Laine, M., Leijala, U., Särkkä, J. & Johansson, M. M. 2022: Bayesian hierarchical modeling of sea level extremes in the Finnish coastal region, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], in review.

2021

Rantanen, M., Jylhä, K., Särkkä, J., Räihä, J., and Leijala, U. 2021: Characteristics of joint heavy precipitation and high sea level events on the Finnish coast in 1961–2020, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], in review.

2020

Björkqvist, J.-V., Rikka, S., Alari, V., Männik, A., Tuomi, L., and Pettersson, H., 2020. Wave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: a Baltic Sea case study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3593–3609. Olsson, T., Luomaranta, A., Jylhä, K., Jeworrek, J., Perttula, T., Dieterich, C., Wu, L., Rutgersson, A., and Mäkelä, A., 2020: Statistics of sea-effect snowfall along the Finnish coastline based on regional climate model data, Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 87–104. Pellikka, H., Laurila, T., Boman, H., Karjalainen, A., Björkqvist, J., Kahma, K., 2020. Meteotsunami occurrence in the Gulf of Finland over the past century. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2535–2546.

Luomaranta, A., 2020: Characteristics of winter climate in Finland in a warming world. Finnish Meteorological Institute Contributions, 169, Doctor of Philosophy thesis.

Pellikka, H., 2020: Dark-blue horizon: Sea level rise and meteotsunamis on the Finnish coast. Finnish Meteorological Institute Contributions, 167, Doctor of Philosophy thesis.

Björkqvist, J.-V., 2020: Waves in Archipelagos. Finnish Meteorological Institute Contributions, 159, Doctor of Philosophy thesis.

Björkqvist, J.-V., Vähä-Piikkiö, O., Alari, V., Kuznetsova, A, and Tuomi, L., 2020. WAM, SWAN and WAVEWATCH III in the Finnish archipelago – the effect of spectral performance on bulk wave parameters, Journal of Operational Oceanography, 13, 55–70.

Gregow H., Rantanen, M., Laurila T. K., & Mäkelä, A. 2020: Review on winds, extratropical cyclones and their impacts in Northern Europe and Finland. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Reports 2020:3, 36 p.

2019

Laurila T. K., Sinclair, V. A, & Gregow, H., 2019: The Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Debby (1982) and the Subsequent Development of an Intense Windstorm over Finland. Monthly Weather Review, 148, 377–401.

Ukkonen, P. & Mäkelä, A., 2019: Evaluation of machine learning classifiers for predicting deep convection. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 1784–1802.

Abstracts, posters and presentations

Räty, O., Laine, M., Leijala, U., Särkkä, J. & Johansson, M, 2022. Non-Stationary Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of Sea Level Extremes on the Finnish Coast. AGU Fall Meeting 2022, 12–16 December 2022, Chicago, USA. Rauhala, J., 2022: Derechos in Finland. 30th Conference on Severe Local Storms organized by American Meteorological Society, 24–28 October 2022, Santa Fe, USA. Leijala U., Johansson M.M., Jylhä K., Laine M., Rantanen M., Räihä J., Räty O. & Särkkä J., 2022: Examining extreme sea levels for the support of nuclear power plant safety in Finland. EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts Vol. 19, EMS2022-651.

Jylhä K, Olsson T, Rantanen M, Rauhala J, Laurila T, Leijala, Luomaranta A, Särkkä J, Virman M, 2022: Exceptional weather and nuclear power plant safety in Finland. EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts Vol. 19, EMS2022-646.

Särkkä J., Räihä J., Rantanen M., Kämäräinen M. & Jylhä K., 2022: Baltic Sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems. International Baltic Earth Secretariat Publication No. 21, May 2022, 4th Baltic Earth Conference Assessing the Baltic Sea Earth System. Jastarnia, Hel Peninsula, Poland, 30 May to 3 June 2022. Conference Proceedings, p. 105–106. (PDF) Olsson T., Luomaranta, A., Jylhä, K., and Nyman, H.: Statistics of sea-effect snowfall in Finland based on ERA5 and FMIClimGrid. EGU General Assembly 2022, 23–27 May 2022, Vienna, Austria & Online, EGU22-8356.

Rantanen, M., Jylhä, K., Särkkä, J., Leijala, U., and Räihä, J. 2021: Characteristics of joint heavy rain and high sea level events on the Finnish coast in 1961–2019, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10587. Rantanen, M., Särkkä, J., Räihä, J., Kämäräinen, M., Jylhä, K. 2021: Synthetically generated low-pressure systems to support studies of sea level extremes. EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-132. Räty, O., Laine, M., Leijala, U., Särkkä, J., and Johansson, M. 2021: Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of Sea Level Extremes on the Finnish Coast, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7826. Särkkä, J., Räihä, J., Rantanen, M., and Jylhä, K. 2021: Extreme sea levels at the Finnish coast due to large-scale wind storms, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8839.

Laine M., Räty O., Särkkä J., Leijala U., & Johansson M. M., 2020: NH038-0002 – Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of Sea Level Extremes. AGU Fall Meeting 2020, Online Everywhere (1. –17.12.2020).

Särkkä, J., Räihä, J., Kämäräinen, M. & K. Jylhä, 2020: Simulating extreme sea levels at the Baltic Sea coast from synthetic cyclones. EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-10271.

Olsson, T. & Jylhä, K., 2019: Case studies of sea-effect snowfall on the Finnish coast with ERA5 data. EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, 16, EMS2019-850.

Olsson, T., Luomaranta, A., Jylhä, K., Wu, J., Jeworrek, J., Dieterich, C. & Rutgersson, A. 2019: Detecting sea-effect snowfalls on Finnish coastlines. EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, 16, EMS2019-483.

Leijala, U., Johansson, M. M., Särkkä, J. & Pellikka, H. 2019. GC11M-1181: Studying the Extrapolation Techniques and Uncertainty Related to the Coastal Flood Risk Estimates in Finland. AGU Fall Meeting 2019, San Francisco (9.–13.12.2019)

Overview of PREDICT in the Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society (9.–13.9.2019):

Preceding project EXWE

Links to EXWE presentations and publications (PDF)

Subsequent project MAWECLI

MAWECLI project page