Predicting extreme weather and sea level for nuclear power plant safety – PREDICT
The safety management over the life cycle of a nuclear power plant requires probability estimates of exceptional weather and sea level conditions in the current and future climate. The main objective of PREDICT is to develop and maintain research expertise and methods needed for assessing probabilities of occurrence of safety-relevant single and compound extreme weather and marine events, both in the range of 0–15 days ahead and in decadal time scales of recent past and future climatic changes. The expected results include improved probability estimates for intense coastal snowfall, coastal flooding risks and compounding extreme events, such as heavy rain and high sea level.
Project duration: 1.2.2019–31.1.2023
Funding: The Finnish State Nuclear Waste Management Fund through SAFIR2022, the Finnish Nuclear Power Plant Safety Research Programme 2019–2022 (http://safir2022.vtt.fi/)
Project structure: Extreme weather in changing climate (WP1); Extreme sea level (WP2); Improving forecasts of extreme weather and sea level events (WP3).
Figure: Simultaneously occurring two or more external events, such as high wind speed and high sea level, may cause more severe consequences than single incidents alone. Image: Shutterstock.
Rutgersson, A., Kjellström, E., Haapala, J., Stendel, M., Danilovich, I., Drews, M., Jylhä, K., Kujala, P., Larsén, X. G., Halsnæs, K., Lehtonen, I., Luomaranta, A., Nilsson, E., Olsson, T., Särkkä, J., Tuomi, L., and Wasmund, N. 2022: Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301. Räty, O., Laine, M., Leijala, U., Särkkä, J., and Johansson, M. M. 2022: Bayesian hierarchical modeling of sea level extremes in the Finnish coastal region, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], in review.
Rantanen, M., Jylhä, K., Särkkä, J., Räihä, J., and Leijala, U. 2021: Characteristics of joint heavy precipitation and high sea level events on the Finnish coast in 1961–2020, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], in review.
Björkqvist, J.-V., Rikka, S., Alari, V., Männik, A., Tuomi, L., and Pettersson, H., 2020. Wave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: a Baltic Sea case study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3593–3609. Olsson, T., Luomaranta, A., Jylhä, K., Jeworrek, J., Perttula, T., Dieterich, C., Wu, L., Rutgersson, A., and Mäkelä, A., 2020: Statistics of sea-effect snowfall along the Finnish coastline based on regional climate model data, Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 87–104. Pellikka, H., Laurila, T., Boman, H., Karjalainen, A., Björkqvist, J., Kahma, K., 2020. Meteotsunami occurrence in the Gulf of Finland over the past century. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2535–2546.
Björkqvist, J.-V., Vähä-Piikkiö, O., Alari, V., Kuznetsova, A, and Tuomi, L., 2020. WAM, SWAN and WAVEWATCH III in the Finnish archipelago – the effect of spectral performance on bulk wave parameters, Journal of Operational Oceanography, 13, 55–70.
Gregow H., Rantanen, M., Laurila T. K., & Mäkelä, A. 2020: Review on winds, extratropical cyclones and their impacts in Northern Europe and Finland. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Reports 2020:3, 36 p.
Laurila T. K., Sinclair, V. A, & Gregow, H., 2019: The Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Debby (1982) and the Subsequent Development of an Intense Windstorm over Finland. Monthly Weather Review, 148, 377–401.
Abstracts, posters and presentations
Rantanen, M., Jylhä, K., Särkkä, J., Leijala, U., and Räihä, J. 2021: Characteristics of joint heavy rain and high sea level events on the Finnish coast in 1961-2019, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10587. Rantanen, M., Särkkä, J., Räihä, J., Kämäräinen, M., Jylhä, K. 2021: Synthetically generated low-pressure systems to support studies of sea level extremes. EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-132. Räty, O., Laine, M., Leijala, U., Särkkä, J., and Johansson, M. 2021: Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of Sea Level Extremes on the Finnish Coast, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7826. Särkkä, J., Räihä, J., Rantanen, M., and Jylhä, K. 2021: Extreme sea levels at the Finnish coast due to large-scale wind storms, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8839.
Leijala, U., Johansson, M. M., Särkkä, J. & Pellikka, H. 2019. GC11M-1181: Studying the Extrapolation Techniques and Uncertainty Related to the Coastal Flood Risk Estimates in Finland. AGU Fall Meeting 2019, San Francisco (9.–13.12.2019)
Overview of PREDICT in the Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society (9.–13.9.2019):