Predicting extreme weather and sea level for nuclear power plant safety – PREDICT
The safety management over the life cycle of a nuclear power plant requires probability estimates of exceptional weather and sea level conditions in the current and future climate. The main objective of PREDICT is to develop and maintain research expertise and methods needed for assessing probabilities of occurrence of safety-relevant single and compound extreme weather and marine events, both in the range of 0–15 days ahead and in decadal time scales of recent past and future climatic changes. The expected results include improved probability estimates for intense coastal snowfall, coastal flooding risks and compounding extreme events, such as heavy rain and high sea level.
Project information
Project duration: 1.2.2019–31.1.2023
Funding: The Finnish State Nuclear Waste Management Fund through SAFIR2022, the Finnish Nuclear Power Plant Safety Research Programme 2019–2022 (http://safir2022.vtt.fi/)
Project structure: Extreme weather in changing climate (WP1); Extreme sea level (WP2); Improving forecasts of extreme weather and sea level events (WP3).
Figure: Simultaneously occurring two or more external events, such as high wind speed and high sea level, may cause more severe consequences than single incidents alone. Image: Shutterstock.
Publications
2023
2022
Rutgersson, A., Kjellström, E., Haapala, J., Stendel, M., Danilovich, I., Drews, M., Jylhä, K., Kujala, P., Larsén, X. G., Halsnæs, K., Lehtonen, I., Luomaranta, A., Nilsson, E., Olsson, T., Särkkä, J., Tuomi, L. & Wasmund, N. 2022: Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301. Räty, O., Laine, M., Leijala, U., Särkkä, J. & Johansson, M. M. 2022: Bayesian hierarchical modeling of sea level extremes in the Finnish coastal region, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], in review.
2021
2020
Björkqvist, J.-V., Rikka, S., Alari, V., Männik, A., Tuomi, L., and Pettersson, H., 2020. Wave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: a Baltic Sea case study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3593–3609. Olsson, T., Luomaranta, A., Jylhä, K., Jeworrek, J., Perttula, T., Dieterich, C., Wu, L., Rutgersson, A., and Mäkelä, A., 2020: Statistics of sea-effect snowfall along the Finnish coastline based on regional climate model data, Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 87–104. Pellikka, H., Laurila, T., Boman, H., Karjalainen, A., Björkqvist, J., Kahma, K., 2020. Meteotsunami occurrence in the Gulf of Finland over the past century. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2535–2546.
2019
Abstracts, posters and presentations
Räty, O., Laine, M., Leijala, U., Särkkä, J. & Johansson, M, 2022. Non-Stationary Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of Sea Level Extremes on the Finnish Coast. AGU Fall Meeting 2022, 12–16 December 2022, Chicago, USA. Rauhala, J., 2022: Derechos in Finland. 30th Conference on Severe Local Storms organized by American Meteorological Society, 24–28 October 2022, Santa Fe, USA. Leijala U., Johansson M.M., Jylhä K., Laine M., Rantanen M., Räihä J., Räty O. & Särkkä J., 2022: Examining extreme sea levels for the support of nuclear power plant safety in Finland. EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts Vol. 19, EMS2022-651.
Särkkä J., Räihä J., Rantanen M., Kämäräinen M. & Jylhä K., 2022: Baltic Sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems. International Baltic Earth Secretariat Publication No. 21, May 2022, 4th Baltic Earth Conference Assessing the Baltic Sea Earth System. Jastarnia, Hel Peninsula, Poland, 30 May to 3 June 2022. Conference Proceedings, p. 105–106. (PDF) Olsson T., Luomaranta, A., Jylhä, K., and Nyman, H.: Statistics of sea-effect snowfall in Finland based on ERA5 and FMIClimGrid. EGU General Assembly 2022, 23–27 May 2022, Vienna, Austria & Online, EGU22-8356.
Rantanen, M., Jylhä, K., Särkkä, J., Leijala, U., and Räihä, J. 2021: Characteristics of joint heavy rain and high sea level events on the Finnish coast in 1961–2019, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10587. Rantanen, M., Särkkä, J., Räihä, J., Kämäräinen, M., Jylhä, K. 2021: Synthetically generated low-pressure systems to support studies of sea level extremes. EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-132. Räty, O., Laine, M., Leijala, U., Särkkä, J., and Johansson, M. 2021: Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of Sea Level Extremes on the Finnish Coast, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7826. Särkkä, J., Räihä, J., Rantanen, M., and Jylhä, K. 2021: Extreme sea levels at the Finnish coast due to large-scale wind storms, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8839.
Overview of PREDICT in the Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society (9.–13.9.2019):
Preceding project EXWE
Links to EXWE presentations and publications (PDF)