Pathways linking uncertainties in model projections of climate and its effects (PLUMES)

The PLUMES project aims to improve the treatment of key uncertainties in climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) analysis, with a focus on Finland and two sectors, agriculture and human health. The project will provide a regional interpretation of a new global scenario framework, combining radiative forcing of the climate (representative concentration pathways – RCPs) and socioeconomic development (shared socioeconomic pathways – SSPs).

Project duration: 1.9.2014–31.8.2018

Partners: The Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE; the coordinator), the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke).

Funding: The Academy of Finland

Consortium web site

Objectives: The main objectives of FMI in PLUMES are to:

prepare high quality daily gridded (10 km × 10 km) observational database for a number of climatic variables in Finland during the period 1961-2010
compile and evaluate RCP-based climate model projections for Finland, putting them in the context of the earlier SRES-based projections
make a synthesis of the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty for future climate in Finland
construct transient future time series of daily and monthly future weather conditions, with a horizontal resolution of 10 km × 10 km, on the basis of downscaling of climate model simulations
assess climate change impacts on temperature-related mortality among the elderly
provide guidance on applications of the project results
export up-to-date information to Climateguide.fi

PLUMES publications

Luomaranta, A., Aalto, J. and Jylhä, K. 2019: Snow cover trends in Finland over 1961–2014 based on gridded snow depth observations. Int J Climatol., 7, 3147–3159.

Lehtonen, I and Jylhä, K., 2019: Tendency towards a more extreme precipitation climate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. Atmospheric Science Letters, 20.

Doctoral dissertation: Ruuhela R, 2018. Impacts of weather and climate on mortality and self-harm in Finland. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Contributions 147. ISBN 978-952-336-060-0. Helsinki.

Ruuhela, R., Hyvärinen, O. & Jylhä, K. 2018. Regional Assessment of Temperature-Related Mortality in Finland. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 15(3), 406.

Marshall, G. J., Kivinen, S., Jylhä, K., Vignols, R. M. & Rees, W. G. 2018. The accuracy of climate variability and trends across Arctic Fennoscandia in four reanalyses. Int J Climatol. 2018; 1–18.

Ruosteenoja K., Jylhä, K., Räisänen, J., & Mäkelä, A. 2017. Surface air relative humidities spuriously exceeding 100% in CMIP5 model output and their impact on future projections. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122: 9557–9568.

Ruuhela, R., Jylhä, K., Lanki, T., Tiittanen, P. & Matzarakis, A. 2017. Biometeorological Assessment of Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures in Helsinki Region, Finland, 1972–2014. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 14, 944.

Kim, S., Sinclair, V. A., Räisänen, J. & Ruuhela, R. 2017. Heat waves in Finland: present and projected summertime extreme temperatures and their associated circulation patterns. Int. J. Climatol.

Ruosteenoja, K., Markkanen, T., Venäläinen, A., Räisänen, P. & Peltola, H. 2017. Seasonal soil moisture and drought occurrence in Europe in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century. Climate Dynamics: 1–16.

Kivinen, S., Rasmus, S., K. Jylhä, K. & Laapas, M. 2017. Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013). Climate, 5, 16.

Ruosteenoja, K., Räisänen, J., Venäläinen, A., Kämäräinen, M. & Pirinen, P. 2016. Terminen kasvukausi lämpenevässä ilmastossa (Thermal growing seasons in a warming climate). Terra 128: 1, 3–15. (PDF)

Ruosteenoja, K., Jylhä, K. & Kämäräinen, M. 2016. Climate forecasts for Finland under the RCP forcing scenarios. Geophysica, 51, 17-50.

Aalto, J., Pirinen, P. & Jylhä, K. 2016. New gridded daily climatology of Finland: Permutation-based uncertainty estimates and temporal trends in climate. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 3807-3823.

Ruosteenoja K., Räisänen J., Venäläinen A. & Kämäräinen M. 2015. Projections for the duration and degree days of the thermal growing season in Europe derived from CMIP5 model output. Int. J. Climatol.

PLUMES press releases

Tiedote (14.2.2019): Lumipeite on ohentunut ja lumikausi lyhentynyt Suomessa

Tiedote (14.11.2018): Väitös: ilmastonmuutoksen terveysriskeihin on varauduttava myös Suomessa

Tiedote (1.3.2018): Kovat pakkaset lisäävät kuolleisuutta

Tiedeuutinen (20.9.2017): Ilmastomalleilla ongelmia napa-alueitten suhteellisten kosteuksien kuvaamisessa

Tiedote (9.8.2017): Suomen ilmaston ennustetaan muuttuvan enemmän talvella kuin kesällä

EMS News (4.7.2017): EMS Young Scientist Award 2017 to Juha Aalto

Tiedote (20.4.2017): Ilmastonmuutos kuivattaa maaperää Euroopassa

Tiedote (20.4.2017): Erityisesti keväiden lämpötilat kohonneet pohjoisessa Fennoskandiassa

Press release (29.12.2016): New climate change forecasts published for Finland

IL:n tiedeuutinen (16.12.2016): Suomen ilmastonmuutosennusteet päivitetty vastaamaan uusia mallituloksia

IL:n tiedeuutinen (14.4.2016): Suomen ilmasto-oloissa ja niiden muutoksissa suurta alueellista vaihtelua

IL:n tiedeuutinen (20.11.2015): Ilmaston lämmetessä kasvukaudet pidentyvät ja lämpösummat suurentuvat

PLUMES presentations

Related web pages

Climateguide.fi

SETUKLIM ACCLIM ADAPT CMIP5

Further information

Kirsti Jylhä Finnish Meteorological Institute Climate Service Centre, Weather and Climate Research P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki email: forename.surname@fmi.fi