Climate System Modelling

Climate models help us to gain information of climate system and estimate how the climate will change in the future. In climate model simulations, anthropogenic and natural forcings as well as feedback phenomena are taken into account and their impact on the climate is evaluated. The results can be used when deciding about methods of mitigating and adapting to climate change.

Atmospheric black carbon modeled with ECHAM averaged over one year

The group studies the physical and chemical processes, interactions and feedbacks of the climate system. Aerosols of the atmosphere, radiation, clouds, snow and interactions between atmosphere and oceans are the main research subjects. Different models from microphysical models to global circulation models are used.

The contribution of FMI to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) is done in this group. In addition, the group does climate simulations to support regional and global adaptation and impact studies of climate change.One of the strategically prominent tasks of the group is to co-operate with the atmospheric sciences center INAR (Institute for atmospheric and Earth system research) in the field of global modelling.

Areas of research and duties:

  • the impact of aerosols on climate

  • feedback phenomena related for example to surface reflectance and carbon cycle

  • water vapor and ozone of mid-atmosphere in the polar areas

  • improving aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate models

  • providing regional climate scenarios over Finland

  • evaluating uncertainties of climate models

Projects

Some of the on-going projects in the group

Personnel

Antti-Ilari Partanen, PhD, Head of group, Senior Research Scientist

I am interested in policy-relevant climate and environmental science, and my main tools are global climate models. Currently, my main focus is in how non-CO2 emissions, such as aerosol particles and methane, affect our efforts to mitigate climate change in short- and long-term. I have also done research on climate engineering and climate effects of aerosol particles. CV Antti-Ilari Partanen

Jaakko Ahola, MSc, Research Scientist, PhD student

I am an applied mathematician and interested in mathematical modeling methods which can help to understand societal problems. Then, in the best case, the aesthetics of mathematics and practicality shake hands. In my master thesis I studied the path optimisation of container ship transport. Currently, I am developing a cloud scale model that can be used to study aerosol-cloud interactions which have a major role in the climate change. CV Jaakko Ahola

Tommi Bergman, PhD, Research Scientist

I develop global Earth system models and use them to explore the interactions between land surface and atmosphere. In the past I have developed e.g. new particle formation and growth mechanisms. I am interested especially on how biospheric changes, emissions and particle formation and their interactions with the radiation, atmosphere and land surface change in the warming climate. Furthermore, I am interested in improving and evaluating modelling methodologies in general. CV Tommi Bergman

Tommi Ekholm, DSc, Research Professor

My research interest is on determining efficient strategies for mitigating climate change. The tools for this are numerical optimization models, particularly Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs); while the scope can vary from global emission pathways to the modelling of electricity markets or management of forest stands. One aspect that particularly interests me is the management of uncertainty. From this viewpoint, I've studied e.g. how to remain below 2°C under uncertainty in climate sensitivity, how to manage forest carbon stocks under damage risks, or how to determine revenue risks for renewable energy investments. CV Tommi Ekholm

Nadine-Cyra Freistetter, Msc, Researcher

I am interested in climate modeling and climate change impacts and mitigation research. Currently, I am studying future road weather changes in Scandinavia in different climate change scenarios using a regional climate and road weather model. Previously, I have studied methane fluxes from vegetation and a stable isotope technique to trace-back invasive insects to their place of birth. CV Nadine-Cyra Freistetter

Svante Henriksson, PhD, Research Scientist

I'm studying the variability of the Indian monsoon from year to year and how it relates to oscillations of the ocean. I'm also studying ideas to weaken hurricanes by generating artificial turbulence with aerosols or other methods. Previously I've worked on aerosol-climate interactions and various topics in climate variability and climate change. CV Svante Henriksson

Risto Makkonen, PhD, Research Professor

I develop global Earth System Models and especially their description of atmospheric composition (aerosols and chemistry). I am interested in aerosol-climate interactions as well as Earth System feedback mechanisms acting via atmospheric aerosols. I've studied how anthropogenic aerosols could influence present-day climate, and how the aerosol-climate forcing evolves as natural and human-made aerosol sources change throughout the 21st century.

Joonas Merikanto, PhD, Senior Research Scientist

My interests span from the production of new knowledge on climate to the dialogue between science and society on climate change issues, for example via coupling science and art. My research is focused on the climate effects of atmospheric aerosol particles and on broader interconnections within the climate system. In my work I use global climate models, mathematical modeling and a pen and a paper. CV Joonas Merikanto

Kalle Nordling, MSc, Research Scientist, PhD student

I'm interested in climate models and climate modelling. Currently,I'm mainly focused on climate effect of anthropogenic aerosols and better description of aerosol-cloud interaction in global climate models. CV Kalle Nordling

Declan O'Donnell, PhD, Senior Research Scientist

Pirkka Ollinaho, PhD, Research Scientist

My main scientific interests are related to probabilistic prediction of weather and climate (a.k.a. ensemble forecasting). I'm also currently working on model tuning via algorithmic tools, developing a work flow controller for ensemble forecasting and contribute some time to teach about ensemble forecasting. CV Pirkka Ollinaho

Marje Prank, PhD, Research Scientist

I have experience in developing and applying modelling tools ranging from process models and LES to earth system models for studying various processes related to atmospheric aerosols. I am especially interested in topics that combine the knowledge of atmospheric physics with that of biological processes, such as natural emissions (sea spray, wildland fires, desert dust, biogenic primary organic particles such as pollen or fungal spores, biogenic VOCs, etc.) and their interactions with the changing climate. CV Marje Prank

Tomi Raatikainen, PhD, Docent, Senior Research Scientist

My research is focused on atmospheric fine particles called aerosol, and especially their effects on clouds and climate. In this work I use detailed numerical models that can simulate how concentration and composition of the aerosol, which acts as a cloud condensation nuclei, affects cloud properties and dynamics. I have also experience about processing and interpreting aerosol measurements related to their optical properties, chemical composition and cloud interactions. CV Tomi Raatikainen

Aapo Rautiainen, PhD, Research Scientist

I am an economist interested in forests, land use and climate policy. In my current work I examine the potential to utilize forests in global climate change mitigation efforts, and how their optimal use depends on external factors, such as technological development. Previously, I have worked on a range of forest-and-climate-related topics; for example, I have studied the design of policy instruments to harmonize forestry and climate policy objectives.

Petri Räisänen, PhD, Docent, Senior Research Scientist

I do research on climate modeling and radiative transfer in the atmosphere and snow. The general goal of my work is to contribute to the development of global climate models, and thereby, more reliable climate change projections. Currently, I study (e.g.) the impact of black carbon in snow on the energy budget. I have also studied, for example, the effects of snow grain shape on the reflection of solar radiation by snow, and the effects of subgrid-scale cloud features (clouds too small to be resolved by a climate model) on radiative transfer. CV Petri Räisänen

Laura Thölix, PhD, Research Scientist

My research is focused on climate forest interaction, and I study it with climate models. I have also studied ozone layer with a chemistry-climate model. In addition I have taken part in very long climate model simulations. We have simulated climate and ice sheet thickness even one million year to the future under different CO2 scenarios. CV Laura Thölix

Erika Toivonen, MSc, Research Scientist, PhD student

I am interested in regional climate modeling and its applications. Currently, I am studying the impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation and dry spell events in the Nordic countries. My master's thesis research was focused on the modeling of surface energy balance fluxes, and thus I am also interested in research related to land-atmosphere interactions. CV Erika Toivonen

Publications

2020

Ahola, J., Korhonen, H., Tonttila, J., Romakkaniemi, S., Kokkola, H., and Raatikainen, T.: Modelling mixed-phase clouds with the large-eddy model UCLALES–SALSA, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11639–11654, doi:10.5194/acp-20-11639-2020, 2020.

Allen, R. J., Turnock, S., Nabat, P., Neubauer, D., Lohmann, U., Olivié, D., Oshima, N., Michou, M., Wu, T., Zhang, J., Takemura, T., Schulz, M., Tsigaridis, K., Bauer, S. E., Emmons, L., Horowitz, L., Naik, V., van Noije, T., Bergman, T., Lamarque, J.-F., Zanis, P., Tegen, I., Westervelt, D. M., Le Sager, P., Good, P., Shim, S., O'Connor, F., Akritidis, D., Georgoulias, A. K., Deushi, M., Sentman, L. T., John, J. G., Fujimori, S., and Collins, W. J.: Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, doi:10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020.

Belušić, D., de Vries, H., Dobler, A., Landgren, O., Lind, P., Lindstedt, D., Pedersen, R. A., Sánchez-Perrino, J. C., Toivonen, E., van Ulft, B., Wang, F., Andrae, U., Batrak, Y., Kjellström, E., Lenderink, G., Nikulin, G., Pietikäinen, J.-P., Rodríguez-Camino, E., Samuelsson, P., van Meijgaard, E., and Wu, M.: HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1311–1333, doi:10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, 2020.

Ekblom, M. , Tuppi, L. , Shemyakin, V. , Laine, M. , Ollinaho, P. , Haario, H. and Järvinen, H.: Algorithmic tuning of spread‐skill relationship in ensemble forecasting systems. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 598-612, doi:10.1002/qj.3695, 2020.

Ekholm, T.: Optimal forest rotation under carbon pricing and forest damage risk, Forest Policy and Economics, 115, 10213, doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102131, 2020.

Laakso, A., Snyder, P. K., Liess, S., Partanen, A.-I., and Millet, D. B.: Differing precipitation response between solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal due to fast and slow components, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 415–434, doi:10.5194/esd-11-415-2020, 2020.

Lind, P., Belušić, D., Christensen, O., Dobler, A., Kjellström, E., Landgren, O., Lindstedt, D., Matte, D., Pedersen, R., Toivonen, E., and Wang, F.: Benefits and added value of convection-permitting climate modeling over Fenno-Scandinavia, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05359-3, 2020.

Sporre, M. K., Blichner, S. M., Schrödner, R., Karset, I. H. H., Berntsen, T. K., van Noije, T., Bergman, T., O'Donnell, D., and Makkonen, R.: Large difference in aerosol radiative effects from BVOC-SOA treatment in three Earth system models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8953–8973, doi:10.5194/acp-20-8953-2020, 2020.

2019

Bahramvash Shams, S., Walden, V. P., Petropavlovskikh, I., Tarasick, D., Kivi, R., Oltmans, S., Johnson, B., Cullis, P., Sterling, C. W., Thölix, L., and Errera, Q.: Variations in the vertical profile of ozone at four high-latitude Arctic sites from 2005 to 2017, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9733–9751, doi:10.5194/acp-19-9733-2019, 2019.

Chavaillaz, Y., Roy, P., Partanen, A.-I., Da Silva, L., Bresson, E., Mengis, N., Chaumont, D., Matthews, H. D.: Exposure to excessive heat and impacts on labour productivity linked to cumulative CO2 emissions, Sci. Rep., 9, 13711, doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-50047-w, 2019.

Cuevas, E., P. M. Romero-Campos, N. Kouremeti, S. Kazadzis, P. Räisänen, R. D. García, A. Barreto, C. Guirado-Fuentes, R. Ramos, C. Toledano, F. Almansa, and J. Gröbner: Aerosol optical depth comparison between GAW-PFR and AERONET-Cimel radiometers from long-term (2005-2015) 1-min synchronous measurements. Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 4309-4337, doi:10.5194/amt-12-4309-2019, 2019.

Fanourgakis, G. S., Kanakidou, M., Nenes, A., Bauer, S. E., Bergman, T., Carslaw, K. S., Grini, A., Hamilton, D. S., Johnson, J. S., Karydis, V. A., Kirkevåg, A., Kodros, J. K., Lohmann, U., Luo, G., Makkonen, R., Matsui, H., Neubauer, D., Pierce, J. R., Schmale, J., Stier, P., Tsigaridis, K., van Noije, T., Wang, H., Watson-Parris, D., Westervelt, D. M., Yang, Y., Yoshioka, M., Daskalakis, N., Decesari, S., Gysel-Beer, M., Kalivitis, N., Liu, X., Mahowald, N. M., Myriokefalitakis, S., Schrödner, R., Sfakianaki, M., Tsimpidi, A. P., Wu, M., and Yu, F.: Evaluation of global simulations of aerosol particle and cloud condensation nuclei number, with implications for cloud droplet formation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8591-8617, doi:10.5194/acp-19-8591-2019, 2019.

Fiedler, S., S. Kinne, W. T. K. Huang, P. Räisänen, D. O'Donnell, N. Bellouin, P. Stier, J. Merikanto, T. van Noije, R. Makkonen, and U. Lohmann: Anthropogenic aerosol forcing - insights from multiple estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6821-6841, doi:10.5194/acp-19-6821-2019, 2019.

Henriksson, S. V., Sundström, A.-M., Josipovic, M., van Zyl, P. G, and Beukes, J. P.: Simulating effects of aerosols on rainfall in southern Africa, Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, 12, 1-10, doi:10.1007/s11869-018-0619-8, 2019.

Im, U., Christensen, J. H., Nielsen, O.-K., Sand, M., Makkonen, R., Geels, C., Anderson, C., Kukkonen, J., Lopez-Aparicio, S., and Brandt, J.: Contributions of Nordic anthropogenic emissions on air pollution and premature mortality over the Nordic region and the Arctic, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12975–12992, doi:10.5194/acp-19-12975-2019, 2019.

Nordling, K., H. Korhonen, P. Räisänen, M. E. Alper, P. Uotila, D. O'Donnell, and J. Merikanto: Role of climate model dynamics in estimated climate responses to anthropogenic aerosols. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9969--9987, doi:10.5194/acp-19-9969-2019, 2019.

Ruosteenoja, K., Räisänen, P., Devraj, S., Garud, S.S. and Lindfors, A. V.: Future changes in incident surface solar radiation and contributing factors in India in CMIP5 climate model simulations. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 58, 19-35, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0013.1, 2019.

Räisänen, P. and A. V. Lindfors, 2019: On the computation of apparent direct solar radiation. J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 2761-2780, doi: 10.1175/jas-d-19-0030.1, 2019.

Salminen-Paatero, S., Thölix, L. E., Kivi, R., and Paatero, J.: Nuclear contamination sources in surface air of Finnish Lapland in 1965–2011 studied by means of 137Cs, 90Sr, and total beta activity, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26, 21, 21511-21523, doi:10.1007/s11356-019-05451-0, 2019.

Sporre, M. K., Blichner, S. M., Karset, I. H. H., Makkonen, R., and Berntsen, T. K.: BVOC–aerosol–climate feedbacks investigated using NorESM, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4763-4782, doi:10.5194/acp-19-4763-2019, 2019.

Toivonen, E., Hippi, M., Korhonen, H., Laaksonen, A., Kangas, M., and Pietikäinen, J.-P.: The road weather model RoadSurf (v6.60b) driven by the regional climate model HCLIM38: evaluation over Finland, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3481–3501, doi:10.5194/gmd-12-3481-2019, 2019.

2018

Doulgeris, K. M., Brus, D., Raatikainen, T., and Kerminen, V.-M.: A Finnish Meteorological Institute–Aerosol Cloud Interaction Tube (FMI–ACIT): Experimental setup and tests of proper operation, J. Chem. Phys., 149, 124201, doi:10.1063/1.5037298, 2018.

Gierens, R.T., Henriksson, S., Josipovic, M., Vakkari, V., van Zyl, P. G., Beukes, P., Wood, C., and O'Connor, E.: Observing continental boundary-layer structure and evolution over the South African savannah using a ceilometer, Theor. Appl. Climatol., doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2484-7, 2018.

Henriksson, S. V., Interannual oscillations and sudden shifts in observed and modeled climate, Atmos. Sci. Lett. 19, e850, doi:10.1002/asl.850, 2018.

Hienola, A., Partanen, A.-I., Pietikäinen, J.-P., O'Donnell, Korhonen, H., Matthews, H. D., and Laaksonen, A.: The impact of aerosol emissions on the 1.5 °C pathways, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 044011, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab1b2, 2018.

Hooda, R. K., Kivekäs, N., O'Connor, E. J., Collaud Coen, M., Pietikäinen, J.‐P., Vakkari, V., Backman, J., Henriksson, S. V., Asmi, E., Komppula, M., Korhonen, H., Hyvärinen, A.-P., & Lihavainen, H.: Driving factors of aerosol properties over the foothills of central Himalayas based on 8.5 years continuous measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 13,421–13,442, doi:10.1029/2018JD029744, 2018.

Kestilä, A., Nordling, K., Miikkulainen, V., Kaipio, M., Tikka, T., Salmi, M., Auer, A., Leskelä, M. and Ritala, M.: Towards space-grade 3D-printed, ALD-coated small satellite propulsion components for fluidics, Additive Manufacturing, 22, 31-37, doi:10.1016/j.addma.2018.04.023, 2018.

Kirkevåg, A., Grini, A., Olivié, D., Seland, Ø., Alterskjær, K., Hummel, M., Karset, I. H. H., Lewinschal, A., Liu, X., Makkonen, R., Bethke, I., Griesfeller, J., Schulz, M., and Iversen, T.: A production-tagged aerosol module for Earth system models, OsloAero5.3 – extensions and updates for CAM5.3-Oslo, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3945-3982, doi:10.5194/gmd-11-3945-2018, 2018.

Lakkala, K., Redondas, A., Meinander, O., Thölix, L., Hamari, B., Almansa, A. F., Carreno, V., García, R. D., Torres, C., Deferrari, G., Ochoa, H., Bernhard, G., Sanchez, R., and de Leeuw, G.: UV measurements at Marambio and Ushuaia during 2000–2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16019-16031, doi:10.5194/acp-18-16019-2018, 2018.

Mallick, K., Toivonen, E., Trebs, I., Boegh, E., Cleverly, J., Eamus, D., Koivusalo, H., Drewry, D., Arndt, S. K., Griebel, A., Beringer, J., and Garcia, M.: Bridging thermal infrared sensing and physically‐based evapotranspiration modeling: From theoretical implementation to validation across an aridity gradient in Australian ecosystems, Water Resour. Res., 54, doi:10.1029/2017wr021357, 2018.

Mengis, N., Partanen, A.-I., Jalbert, J., Matthews, H. D.: 1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing, Sci. Rep., 8, 5381, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-24241-1, 2018.

Mielonen, T., Hienola, A., Kühn, T., Merikanto, J., Lipponen, A., Bergman, T., Korhonen, H., Kolmonen, P., Sogacheva, L., Ghent, D., Pitkänen, M. R., Arola, A., de Leeuw, G., and Kokkola, H.: Summertime Aerosol Radiative Effects and Their Dependence on Temperature over the Southeastern USA. Atmosphere, 9(5), 180, doi:10.3390/atmos9050180, 2018.

Määttänen, A., Merikanto, J., Henschel, H., Duplissy, J., Makkonen, R., Ortega, I. K., and Vehkamäki, H.: New parameterizations for neutral and ion-induced sulfuric acid-water particle formation in nucleation and kinetic regimes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 1269–1296, doi:10.1002/2017jd027429, 2018.

Partanen, A.-I., Landry, J.-S., and Matthews, H. D.: Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 024028, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaa511, 2018.

Pietikäinen, J.-P., Markkanen, T., Sieck, K., Jacob, D., Korhonen, J., Räisänen, P., Gao, Y., Ahola, J., Korhonen, H., Laaksonen, A., and Kaurola, J.: The regional climate model REMO (v2015) coupled with the 1-D freshwater lake model FLake (v1): Fenno-Scandinavian climate and lakes, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1321-1342, doi:10.5194/gmd-11-1321-2018, 2018.

Ruosteenoja, K., Markkanen, T., Venäläinen, A., Räisänen, P., and Peltola, H.: Seasonal soil moisture and drought occurrence in Europe in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century. Climate Dyn., 50, 1177-1192, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3671-4, 2018.

Stevens, R. G., Loewe, K., Dearden, C., Dimitrelos, A., Possner, A., Eirund, G. K., Raatikainen, T., Hill, A. A., Shipway, B. J., Wilkinson, J., Romakkaniemi, S., Tonttila, J., Laaksonen, A., Korhonen, H., Connolly, P., Lohmann, U., Hoose, C., Ekman, A. M. L., Carslaw, K. S., and Field, P. R.: A model intercomparison of CCN-limited tenuous clouds in the high Arctic, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11041-11071, doi:10.5194/acp-18-11041-2018, 2018.

Thölix, L., Karpechko, A., Backman, L., and Kivi, R.: Linking uncertainty in simulated Arctic ozone loss to uncertainties in modelled tropical stratospheric water vapour, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15047-15067, doi:10.5194/acp-18-15047-2018, 2018.

Tyrrell, N. L., Karpechko, A. Y., and Räisänen, P.: The influence of Eurasian snow extent on the northern extratropical stratosphere in a QBO resolving model. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123, 315-328, doi:10.1002/2017jd027378, 2018.

Varmuza K., Filzmoser P., Hoffmann I., Walach, J., Cottin, H., Fray, N., Briois, C., Modica, P., Bardyn, A., Silén, J., Siljeström, S., Stenzel, O., Kissel, J., Hilchenbach, M.: Significance of variables for discrimination: Applied to the search of organic ions in mass spectra measured on cometary particles., Journal of Chemometrics, 32, e3001, doi:10.1002/cem.3001, 2018.

2017

Brus, D., Škrabalová, L., Herrmann, E., Olenius, T., Trávničková, T., Makkonen, U., and Merikanto, J.: Temperature-Dependent Diffusion of H2SO4 in Air at Atmospherically Relevant Conditions: Laboratory Measurements Using Laminar Flow Technique. Atmosphere, 8(7), 132, doi:10.3390/atmos8070132, 2017.

Gregow H.,Laaksonen A., and Alper M.E.: Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951–2010, Scientific Reports, 7, doi:10.1038/srep46397, 2017.

Haapanala, P., Räisänen, P., McFarquhar, G. M., Tiira, J., Macke, A., Kahnert, M., DeVore, J., and Nousiainen, T.: Disk and circumsolar radiances in the presence of ice clouds, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6865-6882, doi:10.5194/acp-17-6865-2017, 2017.

Landry, J.-S., Partanen, A.-I., and Matthews, H. D.: Carbon cycle and climate effects of forcing from fire-emitted aerosols, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 025002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa51de, 2017.

Leutbecher, M., Lock, S.-J., Ollinaho, P., Lang, S. T. K., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Bonavita, M., Christensen, H. M., Diamantakis, M., Dutra, E., English, S., Fisher, M., Forbes, R. M., Goddard, J., Haiden, T., Hogan, R. J., Juricke, S., Lawrence, H., MacLeod, D., Magnusson, L., Malardel, S., Massart, S., Sandu, I., Smolarkiewicz, P. K., Subramanian, A., Vitart, F., Wedi, N. and Weisheimer, A.: Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc, 143: 2315–2339, doi:10.1002/qj.3094, 2017.

Matthews, H. D., Landry, J.-S., Partanen, A.-I., Allen, M., Eby, M., Friedlingstein, P., and Zickfeld, K.: Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate Targets, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., doi:10.1007/s40641-017-0055-0, 2017.

Ollinaho, P., Lock, S. J., Leutbecher, M., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A., Bozzo, A., ... & Sandu, I.: Towards process‐level representation of model uncertainties: stochastically perturbed parametrizations in the ECMWF ensemble. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143(702), 408-422, 1, doi:10.1002/qj.2931, 2017.

Partanen, A.-I., Leduc, M., and Matthews, H. D.: Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 075002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa6eb0, 2017.

Raatikainen, T., Brus, D., Hooda, R. K., Hyvärinen, A.-P., Asmi, E., Sharma, V. P., Arola, A., and Lihavainen, H.: Size-selected black carbon mass distributions and mixing state in polluted and clean environments of northern India, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 371-383, doi:10.5194/acp-17-371-2017, 2017.

Rontu, L., Gleeson, E., Räisänen, P., Nielsen, K. P., Savijärvi, H., and Sass, B. H.: The HIRLAM fast radiation scheme for mesoscale numerical weather prediction models, Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 195-215, doi:10.5194/asr-14-195-2017, 2017.

Räisänen, P., Makkonen, R., Kirkevåg, A., and Debernard, J. B.: Effects of snow grain shape on climate simulations: sensitivity tests with the Norwegian Earth System Model, The Cryosphere, 11, 2919-2942, doi:10.5194/tc-11-2919-2017, 2017.

Tonttila, J., Maalick, Z., Raatikainen, T., Kokkola, H., Kühn, T., and Romakkaniemi, S.: UCLALES–SALSA v1.0: a large-eddy model with interactive sectional microphysics for aerosol, clouds and precipitation, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 169-188, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-169-2017, 2017.