New component improves weather probability forecasts

The study added a new component to the ensemble forecasting model also used to support weather forecasting in Finland.

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The new model component will be included in the operational ensemble forecasting during 2022. After deployment, it improves the usefulness of the probability forecast provided alongside weather forecasts.

Further information:

Researcher Pirkka Ollinaho, Finnish Meteorological Institute, p. 050 596 3449, pirkka.ollinaho@fmi.fi The scientific article is available on Monthly Weather Review.

Reference: Frogner, Inger-Lise, Ulf Andrae, Pirkka Ollinaho, Alan Hally, Karoliina Hämäläinen, Janne Kauhanen, Karl-Ivar Ivarsson, and Daniel Yazgi. " Model Uncertainty Representation in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble - SPP and SPPT in HarmonEPS", Monthly Weather Review 150, 4 (2022): 775-795, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0099.1

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