Aila was an exceptionally strong, but well-predicted autumn storm

The case study showed that the forecasting model used by meteorologists was able to anticipate the development of the Aila storm more than a week before the storm arrived. The effects of the storm were not completely avoided, but the good predictability of the storm enabled effective preparedness.

Photo: Adobe Stock

The Aila storm, which hit our country in September 2020, was exceptionally strong compared to the time of year. Storms stronger than Aila have been measured in the past, but they have occurred later in the autumn and winter.

Even so, Aila was a well-predicted storm, as the weather model created by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts gave the first signs of the arrival of the storm 9 to 10 days in advance, and a clear signal of the storm was visible a week before its arrival.

More information:

Researcher Mika Rantanen, 050 4750756, mika.rantanen@fmi.fi

Rantanen, M., Laurila, T. K., Sinclair, V. A. and Gregow, H. (2021), Storm Aila: An unusually strong autumn storm in Finland. Weather.

The scientific article available here: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3943

Science newsWeatherStorm