Unusually small ozone hole over Antarctica
This year the ozone hole over Antarctica is unusually small. It is currently half the area seen usually in September. Previously, a similar situation was observed in 2002, when the Antarctic ozone hole was split into two parts.
"The reason for such anomalies is exceptional conditions – sudden stratospheric warming. While sudden stratospheric warmings occur regularly in the Northern Hemisphere, they are extremely rare in the Southern Hemisphere", says senior scientist Viktoria Sofieva from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. "The anomalously small ozone hole this year is not really related to the Montreal Protocol, it is a dynamical event."
The ozone hole over Antarctica, which was discovered in the 1980s, is observed every year in the Southern Hemisphere spring. This is the consequence of anthropogenic release of ozone-depleting substances. The Montreal Protocol was signed in 1987 to ban the use of the main human-made ozone-depleting chemicals and protect the life from harmful ultraviolet radiation.
According to World Meteorological Organization's ozone assessment from 2018, the ozone recovery in the Antarctic region is expected in the 2060s.
The ozone hole is continuously monitored by the European Union and the USA.
FMI's forecasting system predicted well the situation
Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) performs operational forecasts of global, European and regional air quality for more than 10 years, including the chemical composition of the stratosphere and the ozone layer status. The 5-days forecasts are publicly available.
"Finnish Meteorological Institute's forecasting system SILAM predicted very well the complicated structure of ozone hole during this season", says Professor Mikhail Sofiev, leader of the SILAM group at FMI.
The characteristic model error did not exceed 15–20%. According to the latest forecasts, the ozone hole will further decrease in size and depth during the forthcoming days.
Further information:
Finnish Meteorological Institute's forecasting System SILAM
Monitoring the ozone layer (EU / Copernicus)
Professor Mikhail Sofiev, Finnish Meteorological Institute, mikhail.sofiev@fmi.fi, +358 50 329 0578Adj. Prof. Viktoria Sofieva, Finnish Meteorological Institute, viktoria.sofieva@fmi.fi, +358 50 380 3413Research Manager Ari Karppinen, Finnish Meteorological Institute, ari.karppinen@fmi.fi, +358 40 534 6809Prof. Johanna Tamminen, Finnish Meteorological Institute, johanna.tamminen@fmi.fi, +358 40 737 8733Dr. Rostislav Kouznetsov, Finnish Meteorological Institute, rostislav.kouznetsov@fmi.fi, +358 50 598 2580