Recent changes in maximum allowed fuel sulfur content at the Baltic Sea and Northern Sea have decreased shipping emissions
If no regulatory actions would have been taken during this period sulfur oxides emissions originating from shipping would be more than twice as high in 2011. Fine particle emissions respectively, would be 70% higher.Using the shipping emission model FMI-STEAM the evolution of shipping emissions during 2005 – 2011 was investigated. Furthermore, the impacts of the forthcoming fuel sulfur content regulations in 2015 were simulated.
Further reductions expected in 2015
According to the projections for the future, there will be a further reduction of 87% in sulfur oxides emissions and a reduction of 48% in fine particle emissions in 2015, compared with the corresponding shipping emissions in 2011 in the emission control area. Then all ships are required to use the more expensive low sulfur fuels.The forthcoming emission reductions may prove to be costly however - the corresponding relative increase in fuel costs for all registered shipping varies between 13% and 69%, depending on the development of the prices of fuels and the utilization level of sulfur scrubber equipment. A significant portion of the larger container ships, bulk carriers and cruiser ships would benefit from sulfur scrubber equipment according to the study. An installed sulfur scrubber system makes it possible for the ships to use the cheaper high sulfur content fuels while complying with the regulations. Not all existing ships can be equipped with a retro-fit scrubber however, and each installment costs several millions of euros and need continuous maintenance. These installment and maintenance costs were not taken into account in the study.
The highest shipping emissions in 2011 were located in the vicinity of the coast of the Netherlands, in the English Channel, near the South-Eastern UK and along the busiest shipping lines in the Danish Straits and the Baltic Sea.
The model used in this study combines high resolution activity data information with detailed technical knowledge of individual ships, producing vessel specific fuel consumption data and emission inventories. In previous literature, the effects and costs of recent and forthcoming regulation changes in the northern EU area has not been presented based on real activity data of individual ships.
Additional information:
Researcher Lasse Johansson, tel. +358 50 406 6737, lasse.johansson@fmi.fi
Lasse Johansson, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Juha Kalli ja Jaakko Kukkonen, " The evolution of shipping emissions and the costs of regulation changes in the northern EU area", Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11375-11389,doi:10.5194/acp-13-11375-2013, 2013
