Climate System Modelling

Climate models help us to gain information of climate system and estimate how the climate will change in the future. In climate model simulations, anthropogenic and natural forcings as well as feedback phenomena are taken into account and their impact on the climate is evaluated. The results can be used when deciding about methods of mitigating and adapting to climate change.

Atmospheric black carbon modeled with ECHAM averaged over one year

Atmospheric black carbon modeled with ECHAM averaged over one year
 

The group studies the physical and chemical processes, interactions and feedbacks of the climate system. Aerosols of the atmosphere, radiation, clouds, snow and interactions between atmosphere and oceans are the main research subjects. Different models from microphysical models to global circulation models are used.

The contribution of FMI to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) is done in this group. In addition, the group does climate simulations to support regional and global adaptation and impact studies of climate change.
One of the strategically prominent tasks of the group is to co-operate with the atmospheric sciences center INAR (Institute for atmospheric and Earth system research) in the field of global modelling.

Areas of research and duties:

  • the impact of aerosols on climate
  • feedback phenomena related for example to surface reflectance and carbon cycle
  • water vapor and ozone of mid-atmosphere in the polar areas
  • improving aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate models
  • providing regional climate scenarios over Finland
  • evaluating uncertainties of climate models

Projects

Some of the on-going projects in the group

Personnel

Antti-Ilari Partanen, PhD, Head of group, Senior Research Scientist
I am interested in policy-relevant climate and environmental science, and my main tools are global climate models. Currently, my main focus is in how non-CO2 emissions, such as aerosol particles and methane, affect our efforts to mitigate climate change in short- and long-term. I have also done research on climate engineering and climate effects of aerosol particles.
CV Antti-Ilari Partanen

Jaakko Ahola, MSc, Research Scientist, PhD student
I am an applied mathematician and interested in mathematical modeling methods which can help to understand societal problems. Then, in the best case, the aesthetics of mathematics and practicality shake hands. In my master thesis I studied the path optimisation of container ship transport. Currently, I am developing a cloud scale model that can be used to study aerosol-cloud interactions which have a major role in the climate change.
CV Jaakko Ahola

Muzaffer Ege Alper, PhD, Research Scientist
I am interested in the development of Bayesian methodology with applications to climatology and other applied sciences. In particular, I look to develop fast deterministic/stochastic inference algorithms for large-scale and/or high dimensional problems. Currently my focus is on implementing a Gaussian process emulator for cloud resolving models.

Svante Henriksson, PhD, Research Scientist
I'm studying the variability of the Indian monsoon from year to year and how it relates to oscillations of the ocean. I'm also studying ideas to weaken hurricanes by generating artificial turbulence with aerosols or other methods. Previously I've worked on aerosol-climate interactions and various topics in climate variability and climate change.
CV Svante Henriksson

Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, PhD, Research Scientist
I am currently working in the ECLAIR project with my main focus on the better representation of aerosol-cloud interactions in global climate models. My earlier research has concerned, among others things, the use and the reliability of LES, the application of nonlinear time series analysis on flow fields, and the inclusion of marine organic aerosol sources in global climate models.

Risto Makkonen, PhD, Research Professor (tenure-track), Senior Research Scientist
I develop global Earth System Models and especially their description of atmospheric composition (aerosols and chemistry). I am interested in aerosol-climate interactions as well as Earth System feedback mechanisms acting via atmospheric aerosols. I've studied how anthropogenic aerosols could influence present-day climate, and how the aerosol-climate forcing evolves as natural and human-made aerosol sources change throughout the 21st century.

Joonas Merikanto, PhD, Senior Research Scientist
My interests span from the production of new knowledge on climate to the dialogue between science and society on climate change issues, for example via coupling science and art. My research is focused on the climate effects of atmospheric aerosol particles and on broader interconnections within the climate system. In my work I use global climate models, mathematical modeling and a pen and a paper.
CV Joonas Merikanto

Kalle Nordling, MSc, Research Scientist, PhD student
I'm interested in climate models and climate modelling. Currently,I'm mainly focused on climate effect of anthropogenic aerosols and better description of aerosol-cloud interaction in global climate models.
CV Kalle Nordling

Declan O'Donnell, PhD, Senior Research Scientist

Pirkka Ollinaho, PhD, Research Scientist
My main scientific interests are related to probabilistic prediction of weather and climate (a.k.a. ensemble forecasting). I'm also currently working on model tuning via algorithmic tools, developing a work flow controller for ensemble forecasting and contribute some time to teach about ensemble forecasting.
CV Pirkka Ollinaho

Tomi Raatikanen, PhD, Senior Research Scientist
My research is focused on atmospheric fine particles called aerosol, and especially their effects on clouds and climate. In this work I use detailed numerical models that can simulate how concentration and composition of the aerosol, which acts as a cloud condensation nuclei, affects cloud properties and dynamics. I have also experience about processing and interpreting aerosol measurements related to their optical properties, chemical composition and cloud interactions.
CV Tomi Raatikanen

Petri Räisänen, PhD, Docent, Senior Research Scientist
I do research on climate modeling and radiative transfer in the atmosphere and snow. The general goal of my work is to contribute to the development of global climate models, and thereby, more reliable climate change projections. Currently, I study (e.g.) the impact of black carbon in snow on the energy budget. I have also studied, for example, the effects of snow grain shape on the reflection of solar radiation by snow, and the effects of subgrid-scale cloud features (clouds too small to be resolved by a climate model) on radiative transfer.
CV Petri Räisänen

Erika Toivonen, MSc, Research Scientist, PhD student
I am interested in regional climate modeling and its applications. Currently, I am studying the impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation and dry spell events in the Nordic countries. My master's thesis research was focused on the modeling of surface energy balance fluxes, and thus I am also interested in research related to land-atmosphere interactions.
CV Erika Toivonen

Laura Thölix, MSc, Research Scientist
I have studied middle atmosphere, ozone and water vapour in the ozone layer with a chemistry-climate model. In addition I have taken part in very long climate model simulations. We have simulated temperature, precipitation and ice sheet thickness even one million year to the future under different CO2 scenarios.
CV Laura Thölix

Publications

2018

Gierens, R.T., Henriksson, S., Josipovic, M., Vakkari, V., van Zyl, P. G., Beukes, P., Wood, C., and O'Connor, E.: Observing continental boundary-layer structure and evolution over the South African savannah using a ceilometer, Theor. Appl. Climatol., doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2484-7, 2018

Hienola, A., Partanen, A.-I., Pietikäinen, J.-P., O'Donnell, Korhonen, H., Matthews, H. D., and Laaksonen, A.: The impact of aerosol emissions on the 1.5 °C pathways, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 044011, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab1b2, 2018.

Kestilä, A., Nordling, K., Miikkulainen, V., Kaipio, M., Tikka, T., Salmi, M., Auer, A., Leskelä, M. and Ritala, M.: Towards space-grade 3D-printed, ALD-coated small satellite propulsion components for fluidics, Additive Manufacturing, 22, 31-37, doi:10.1016/j.addma.2018.04.023, 2018.

Mallick, K., Toivonen, E., Trebs, I., Boegh, E., Cleverly, J., Eamus, D., Koivusalo, H., Drewry, D., Arndt, S. K., Griebel, A., Beringer, J., and Garcia, M.: Bridging thermal infrared sensing and physically‐based evapotranspiration modeling: From theoretical implementation to validation across an aridity gradient in Australian ecosystems, Water Resour. Res., 54, doi:10.1029/2017WR021357, 2018.

Mengis, N., Partanen, A.-I., Jalbert, J., Matthews, H. D.: 1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing, Sci. Rep., 8, 5381, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-24241-1, 2018.

Mielonen, T., Hienola, A., Kühn, T., Merikanto, J., Lipponen, A., Bergman, T., Korhonen, H., Kolmonen, P., Sogacheva, L., Ghent, D., Pitkänen, M. R., Arola, A., de Leeuw, G., and Kokkola, H.: Summertime Aerosol Radiative Effects and Their Dependence on Temperature over the Southeastern USA. Atmosphere, 9(5), 180, doi:10.3390/atmos9050180, 2018.

Määttänen, A., Merikanto, J., Henschel, H., Duplissy, J., Makkonen, R., Ortega, I. K., and Vehkamäki, H.: New parameterizations for neutral and ion-induced sulfuric acid-water particle formation in nucleation and kinetic regimes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 1269–1296, doi:10.1002/2017JD027429, 2018.

Partanen, A.-I., Landry, J.-S., and Matthews, H. D.: Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 024028, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaa511, 2018.

Pietikäinen, J.-P., Markkanen, T., Sieck, K., Jacob, D., Korhonen, J., Räisänen, P., Gao, Y., Ahola, J., Korhonen, H., Laaksonen, A., and Kaurola, J.: The regional climate model REMO (v2015) coupled with the 1-D freshwater lake model FLake (v1): Fenno-Scandinavian climate and lakes, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1321-1342, doi:10.5194/gmd-11-1321-2018, 2018.

Ruosteenoja, K., Markkanen, T., Venäläinen, A., Räisänen, P., and Peltola, H.: Seasonal soil moisture and drought occurrence in Europe in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century. Climate Dyn., 50, 1177-1192, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3671-4, 2018.

Stevens, R. G., Loewe, K., Dearden, C., Dimitrelos, A., Possner, A., Eirund, G. K., Raatikainen, T., Hill, A. A., Shipway, B. J., Wilkinson, J., Romakkaniemi, S., Tonttila, J., Laaksonen, A., Korhonen, H., Connolly, P., Lohmann, U., Hoose, C., Ekman, A. M. L., Carslaw, K. S., and Field, P. R.: A model intercomparison of CCN-limited tenuous clouds in the high Arctic, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11041-11071, doi:10.5194/acp-18-11041-2018, 2018.

Tyrrell, N. L., Karpechko, A. Y., and Räisänen, P.: The influence of Eurasian snow extent on the northern extratropical stratosphere in a QBO resolving model. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123, 315-328, doi:10.1002/2017JD027378, 2018.

2017

Brus, D., Škrabalová, L., Herrmann, E., Olenius, T., Trávničková, T., Makkonen, U., and Merikanto, J.: Temperature-Dependent Diffusion of H2SO4 in Air at Atmospherically Relevant Conditions: Laboratory Measurements Using Laminar Flow Technique. Atmosphere, 8(7), 132, doi:10.3390/atmos8070132, 2017.

Gregow H.,Laaksonen A., and Alper M.E.: Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951–2010, Scientific Reports, 7, doi:10.1038/srep46397, 2017.

Haapanala, P., Räisänen, P., McFarquhar, G. M., Tiira, J., Macke, A., Kahnert, M., DeVore, J., and Nousiainen, T.: Disk and circumsolar radiances in the presence of ice clouds, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6865-6882, doi:10.5194/acp-17-6865-2017, 2017.

Landry, J.-S., Partanen, A.-I., and Matthews, H. D.: Carbon cycle and climate effects of forcing from fire-emitted aerosols, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 025002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa51de, 2017.

Leutbecher, M., Lock, S.-J., Ollinaho, P., Lang, S. T. K., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Bonavita, M., Christensen, H. M., Diamantakis, M., Dutra, E., English, S., Fisher, M., Forbes, R. M., Goddard, J., Haiden, T., Hogan, R. J., Juricke, S., Lawrence, H., MacLeod, D., Magnusson, L., Malardel, S., Massart, S., Sandu, I., Smolarkiewicz, P. K., Subramanian, A., Vitart, F., Wedi, N. and Weisheimer, A.: Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc, 143: 2315–2339. doi:10.1002/qj.3094, 2017.

Matthews, H. D., Landry, J.-S., Partanen, A.-I., Allen, M., Eby, M., Friedlingstein, P., and Zickfeld, K.: Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate Targets, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., doi:10.1007/s40641-017-0055-0, 2017.

Ollinaho, P., Lock, S. J., Leutbecher, M., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A., Bozzo, A., ... & Sandu, I.: Towards process‐level representation of model uncertainties: stochastically perturbed parametrizations in the ECMWF ensemble. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143(702), 408-422, 1, doi:10.1002/qj.2931, 2017.

Partanen, A.-I., Leduc, M., and Matthews, H. D.: Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 075002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa6eb0, 2017.

Raatikainen, T., Brus, D., Hooda, R. K., Hyvärinen, A.-P., Asmi, E., Sharma, V. P., Arola, A., and Lihavainen, H.: Size-selected black carbon mass distributions and mixing state in polluted and clean environments of northern India, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 371-383, doi:10.5194/acp-17-371-2017, 2017.

Rontu, L., Gleeson, E., Räisänen, P., Nielsen, K. P., Savijärvi, H., and Sass, B. H.: The HIRLAM fast radiation scheme for mesoscale numerical weather prediction models, Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 195-215, doi:10.5194/asr-14-195-2017, 2017.

Räisänen, P., Makkonen, R., Kirkevåg, A., and Debernard, J. B.: Effects of snow grain shape on climate simulations: sensitivity tests with the Norwegian Earth System Model, The Cryosphere, 11, 2919-2942, doi:10.5194/tc-11-2919-2017, 2017.

Tonttila, J., Maalick, Z., Raatikainen, T., Kokkola, H., Kühn, T., and Romakkaniemi, S.: UCLALES–SALSA v1.0: a large-eddy model with interactive sectional microphysics for aerosol, clouds and precipitation, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 169-188, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-169-2017, 2017.

Contact information

Head of Group Antti-Ilari Partanen
tel. +358 29 539 2055
email: antti-ilari.partanen@fmi.fi

Research professor Risto Makkonen
tel. +358 29 539 4109
email: risto.makkonen@fmi.fi