Pathways linking uncertainties in model projections of climate and its effects (PLUMES)

The PLUMES project aims to improve the treatment of key uncertainties in climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) analysis, with a focus on Finland and two sectors, agriculture and human health. The project will provide a regional interpretation of a new global scenario framework, combining radiative forcing of the climate (representative concentration pathways – RCPs) and socioeconomic development (shared socioeconomic pathways – SSPs).

Project duration: 1.9.2014–31.8.2018

Partners: The Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE; the coordinator), the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke).

Funding: The Academy of Finland

Consortium web site

Objectives: The main objectives of FMI in PLUMES are to:

  • prepare high quality daily gridded (10 km × 10 km) observational database for a number of climatic variables in Finland during the period 1961-2010

  • compile and evaluate RCP-based climate model projections for Finland, putting them in the context of the earlier SRES-based projections

  • make a synthesis of the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty for future climate in Finland

  • construct transient future time series of daily and monthly future weather conditions, with a horizontal resolution of 10 km × 10 km, on the basis of downscaling of climate model simulations

  • assess climate change impacts on temperature-related mortality among the elderly

  • provide guidance on applications of the project results

  • export up-to-date information to Climateguide.fi

PLUMES publications

Ruosteenoja K., Jylhä, K., Räisänen, J., & Mäkelä, A. 2017. Surface air relative humidities spuriously exceeding 100% in CMIP5 model output and their impact on future projections. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122: 9557–9568.

Ruuhela, R., Jylhä, K., Lanki, T., Tiittanen, P. & Matzarakis, A. 2017. Biometeorological Assessment of Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures in Helsinki Region, Finland, 1972–2014. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 14, 944.

Kim, S., Sinclair, V. A., Räisänen, J. & Ruuhela, R. 2017. Heat waves in Finland: present and projected summertime extreme temperatures and their associated circulation patterns. Int. J. Climatol.

Ruosteenoja, K., Markkanen, T., Venäläinen, A., Räisänen, P. & Peltola, H. 2017. Seasonal soil moisture and drought occurrence in Europe in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century. Climate Dynamics: 1–16.

Kivinen, S., Rasmus, S., K. Jylhä, K.  & Laapas, M. 2017. Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013). Climate, 5, 16.

Ruosteenoja, K., Räisänen, J., Venäläinen, A., Kämäräinen, M. & Pirinen, P.  2016. Terminen kasvukausi lämpenevässä ilmastossa (Thermal growing seasons in a warming climate). Terra 128: 1, 3–15.

Ruosteenoja, K., Jylhä, K. &  Kämäräinen, M. 2016. Climate forecasts for Finland under the RCP forcing scenarios. Geophysica, 51, 17-50.

Aalto, J., Pirinen, P. & Jylhä, K. 2016. New gridded daily climatology of Finland: Permutation-based uncertainty estimates and temporal trends in climate. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 3807-3823.

Ruosteenoja K., Räisänen J., Venäläinen A. & Kämäräinen M. 2015. Projections for the duration and degree days of the thermal growing season in Europe derived from CMIP5 model output. Int. J. Climatol.

PLUMES press releases

IL:n tiedeuutinen (20.9.2017): Ilmastomalleilla ongelmia napa-alueitten suhteellisten kosteuksien kuvaamisessa

Tiedote (9.8.2017): Suomen ilmaston ennustetaan muuttuvan enemmän talvella kuin kesällä

Tiedote (20.4.2017): Ilmastonmuutos kuivattaa maaperää Euroopassa

Tiedote (20.4.2017): Erityisesti keväiden lämpötilat kohonneet pohjoisessa Fennoskandiassa

Press release (29.12.2016): New climate change forecasts published for Finland

IL:n tiedeuutinen (16.12.2016): Suomen ilmastonmuutosennusteet päivitetty vastaamaan uusia mallituloksia

IL:n tiedeuutinen (14.4.2016): Suomen ilmasto-oloissa ja niiden muutoksissa suurta alueellista vaihtelua

IL:n tiedeuutinen (20.11.2015): Ilmaston lämmetessä kasvukaudet pidentyvät ja lämpösummat suurentuvat

PLUMES presentations

Related web pages

Climateguide.fi
SETUKLIM
ACCLIM
ADAPT
CMIP5

Further information

Kirsti Jylhä
Finnish Meteorological Institute
Climate Service Centre, Weather and Climate Research
P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki
email: forename.surname@fmi.fi

30.10.2017