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New model improves accuracy of probability forecasts

New model improves accuracy of probability forecasts

A new method for improving the accuracy of probability forecasts has been developed in a study conducted at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

More information:

Pirkka Ollinaho, tel. +358 50 596 3449, pirkka.ollinaho@fmi.fi

Ollinaho, P., Lock, S.-J., Leutbecher, M., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A., Bozzo, A., Forbes, R. M., Haiden, T., Hogan, R. J. and Sandu, I. (2016), Towards process-level representation of model uncertainties: stochastically perturbed parametrizations in the ECMWF ensemble. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.. doi:10.1002/qj.2931

http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2016/16682-towards-process-level-representation-model-uncertainties-stochastically-perturbed.pdf


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