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Comparing the Performance of Two Road Weather Models in the Netherlands

Comparing the Performance of Two Road Weather Models in the Netherlands

Multiple road weather models are currently used around the world, but only few studies are made where the results from different models are compared together.

In this study the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute's (KNMI) recently developed road weather model was compared to the Finnish Meteorological Institute's (FMI) model. The verification results are slightly better for The KNMI's model than for the FMI's model. The comparison study gave useful information for the development of the both models.

Road weather models predict the future road conditions, like road surface temperature and the slipperiness of the road. Accurate forecasts are important for well-timed maintenance operations. The KNMI developed a new road weather model during 2014-2015. The results were compared to FMI's long used model to assess the quality of the forecasts. FMI's road weather model has been in use since the year 2000 and it is constantly developed. The models were run for the Netherlands region for time period 15 January – 28 February 2015. The same input data was given to the both models and the compared variable was road surface temperature.

The forecasts were verified with road weather station observations. The KNMI's model gave slightly smaller forecast errors. However, the KNMI's model has been tuned for the road conditions in the Netherlands, whereas the FMI's model is developed for Finland's wintry road conditions. Both models gave comparable results and the differences were rather small.

More information:

Researcher Virve Karsisto,

Karsisto V., S. Tijm, P. Nurmi, 2017: Comparing the Performance of Two Road Weather Models in the Netherlands, Wea. Forecasting, 32, no. 3, 991–1006, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-16-0158.1


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