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An improved version of a consequence analysis model for chemical emergencies

An improved version of a consequence analysis model for chemical emergencies

FMI has presented a refined version of a mathematical model called ESCAPE, "Expert System for Consequence Analysis and Preparing for Emergencies".

The model has been designed for evaluating the releases of toxic and flammable gases into the atmosphere, their atmospheric dispersion and the effects on humans and the environment. The model can automatically use the real time predictions and forecasts of the numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM, "HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model". The operational ESCAPE modelling system can be accessed anywhere using internet browsers, on laptop computers, tablets and mobile phones. The predicted results can be post-processed using geographic information systems. The model has already proved to be a useful tool of assessment for the needs of emergency response authorities in contingency planning.

Research describes the mathematical treatments of this model, a verification and evaluation of the model against selected experimental field data, and  a new operational implementation of the model.The model performance was first successfully verified using the data of the Thorney Island campaign, and then evaluated against the Desert Tortoise campaign. There was a good agreement of predictions and data, in comparison to values evaluated for a range of other similar models.

More information:

Prof. Jaakko Kukkonen, puh. + 358 505 202 684,

Kukkonen, J., Nikmo, J. and Riikonen, K., 2017. An improved version of the consequence analysis model for chemical emergencies, ESCAPE. Atmos. Environ. 150, pp. 198-209, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.11.050.


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