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Global methane estimates from atmospheric inverse model

Global methane estimates from atmospheric inverse model

Estimated global total mean CH4 emission for the study period is 516 ± 51 Tg with an increase of 18 Tg CH4 yr−1 from 2000–2006 to 2007–2012.

We estimated global methane emissions during 2000–2012 using CarbonTracker Europe-CH4 (CTE-CH4) atmospheric inverse model. Estimated global total mean CH4 emission for the study period is 516 ± 51 Tg CH4 yr−1, with an increase of 18 Tg CH4 yr−1 from 2000–2006 to 2007–2012. The increase is mainly driven by an increase in emissions from South American temperate, Asian temperate and Asian tropical regions. In addition, the increase is much smaller than suggested by EDGAR v4.2 FT2010 inventory (33 Tg CH4 yr−1), which was used for prior anthropogenic emission estimates. The result is in good agreement with other published estimates from inverse modelling studies (16–20 Tg CH4 yr−1). We find that the global CH4 balance could be closed over this time period without strong anthropogenic CH4 emission increase from North America and Europe. The results were evaluated against model-independent observations from European aircraft campaigns, and satellite remote sensing (GOSAT) and ground-based (TCCON) dry air column-averaged mole fraction (XCH4) retrievals, which showed a good agreement with the observations.

CTE-CH4 is developed at FMI, based on CO2 version of CarbonTracker models developed at NOAA and Wageningen University. CTE-CH4 optimizes both biospheric and anthropogenic CH4 emissions simultaneously, constrained by global atmospheric CH4 observations.

More information:

Researcher Aki Tsuruta, tel. +358 50 442 7775, aki.tsuruta@fmi.fi

Tsuruta, A., Aalto, T., Backman, L., Hakkarainen, J., van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., Krol, M. C., Spahni, R., Houweling, S., Laine, M., Dlugokencky, E., Gomez-Pelaez, A. J., van der Schoot, M., Langenfelds, R., Ellul, R., Arduini, J., Apadula, F., Gerbig, C., Feist, D. G., Kivi, R., Yoshida, Y., and Peters, W.: Global methane emission estimates for 2000–2012 from CarbonTracker Europe-CH4 v1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1261-1289, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-1261-2017, 2017.

http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/1261/2017/gmd-10-1261-2017.pdf

 


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