Mitigation of Arctic warming by controlling European black carbon emissions (MACEB)

Start year: 2011
End year: 2013
Contact at FMI: Heikki Lihavainen
Funding: EU LIFE+
Partners: Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI, coordinator), University of Helsinki (UHEL), Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Arctic temperatures have increased at almost twice the global average rate over the past 100 years. Warming in the arctic has been accompanied by an earlier onset of spring melt, lengthening of the melt season and changes in the mass balance of Greenland ice sheet. The lengthening of the melt season changes the Earth’s albedo, a positive feedback effect which leads to further warming. Arctic warming is primarily a manifestation of global warming. Reductions in the atmospheric burden of CO2 are the backbone of any meaningful effort to mitigate climate forcing. But even if swift and deep reductions were made, the reductions may not delay the rapid melting of the Arctic. This is because the long life time of CO2 in the atmosphere. Reductions in the concentration levels of short-lived climate forcing agents, such as black carbon (BC), might be used to slow down the warming of the Arctic environment, to constrain the length of the melting season and thereby to reduce the feedback effects. These short- lived species have the advantage that emission reduction will quickly affect radiative balance of the atmosphere as opposed to reduction of long-lived greenhouse gases. By such reductions, one may potentially buy time for the Arctic environment until CO2 reduction efforts will decrease its atmospheric concentration.

Several studies have been made to link emissions from different areas and abundance of BC in the Arctic areas. Europe was found to be significant source to surface concentration of BC whereas East Asia dominated the sources at higher troposphere. There are still large uncertainties associated with modelling the forcing and temperature response due to BC. This prevents us from providing definitive answers regarding impacts and mitigation strategies. We can, however, use the best available tools to develop a system, by which we can demonstrate where the major gaps in the knowledge are. With the tool developed in this project we can estimate BC concentrations and corresponding radiative forcing over the Arctic areas and link them with the emissions from various areas and sources. This toolbox can be used to analyse different mitigation strategies and to find out the relative contribution of different areas (USA, China, Europe) and countries in Europe to Arctic warming by BC.

Objectives of the MACEB project

The project has three main objectives:

1. To demonstrate, by implementing the best available tools, the innovative approach to mitigate warming of Arctic climate by black carbon (BC) emissions reduction at mid latitudes, especially at Europe. Arctic areas are expected to suffer most from climate change. Demonstration also identifies knowledge gaps and uncertainties in how BC emissions can be linked with radiative forcing in Arctic areas using current modelling and measurement tools.
2. To assess the impact of the current air quality and climate relevant legislation in the northern hemisphere on BC emissions, their transport to the Arctic, and eventually Arctic warming and how it relates to warming by CO2. To evaluate an extensive set of mitigation measures targeting BC emissions that could enhance the existing European legislation to increase climate co-benefits of air quality.
3. To transfer action procedures and experiences to various stakeholders (modelling community, national authorities) within EU by implementing a web portal to assess and mitigate BC emissions from most important source sectors, especially small-scale wood burning.

Happened in the project:

• Press release in January
• Kick-off meeting in January
• Visit of the monitoring team in June
• Inception report to the European Commission in September
• Steering group meeting in November
• Monitoring meeting and project area visit at Pallastunturi in April 2012

Presenting the project:

• Presentation pdf (Niko Karvosenoja, SYKE ja Kaarle Kupiainen, IIASA) at the meeting of NIAM/EC4MACS,  21-22 March 2011 in Laxenburg Austria
• Presentation Session 4, d (Niko Karvosenoja, SYKE) at the annual TFEIP/EIONET meeting, 2-3 May 2011 in Stockholm
• Presentation pdf (Antti Hyvärinen, FMI) at Ilmansuojelupäivät, 23-24 August 2011 in Lappeenranta